After recently closing at a record-high value, where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here? Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 7.5% over the next twelve months.

Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs, did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter? The answer is yes. During the quarter, analysts lowered EPS estimates by a larger margin compared to the three most recent averages. The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q2 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 4.2% (to $62.83 from $65.55) from March 31 to June 30.

Family-owned businesses that combine four critical mindsets with five strategic actions have a chance to quadruple their value in the next decade—while maintaining resilience.

Do family businesses deliver better stock-market performance than other companies? If so, why? What ownership breakdown is most effective, and does business performance change over generations? Should we look to developed or emerging markets for the best-run family firms? These are all questions that you may have to answer if you’re thinking about investing in a family owned and/or managed company.

At this late stage of the earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting strong results for the first quarter. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative the end of the quarter. The index is also reporting double-digit earnings growth for the second consecutive quarter.

Over the past month, Trump’s tariffs have caused market turbulence, and gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has experienced a new wave of growth, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce mark. However, U.S. Treasury bonds, historically another key safe-haven asset, have underperformed, leading to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index. Why has the market dynamic shifted in this way?

If we analyse the data of Price Earning ratios of major International stock exchanges at the end of February we could assess that in the world USA despite their positive economic results is the stock exchange much more expensive and much less promising in terms of short and even more in terms of long term returns.

At the end of March 2025, the MacroMicro Fear&Greed Index says that in Eurozone there is a general optimism about the stock market trends.

Volume, volume, volume. If price and volume were a couple, they’d be like Noah and Allie or Jenny and Forrest, two peas in a pod, or like peas and carrots. They just go well together. And apart, it’s hard to make sense of life, much less charts. Sure, you could try to go it alone, but volume gives a purpose to price that no other indicator can.

Volume profile applied at S&P 500 indicates a "b" profile after a long period of growth. Typically, this profile at this market stage, usually indicates a high probability of either a downturn or the beginning of a consolidation phase.

Derived from price quotations for short-term interest rate futures, the implied interest rate reflects where the market expects future interest rates to be. The implied rate is calculated using the formula: (100 – Price Quote of Interest Rate Futures) × 100%.

Market research firm Yardeni Research highlighted four reasons why it expects that foreign investors will continue to pour funds into the US capital markets.
This data is quite important because historically, any time there is a peak in foreing private purchases of US stocks, the market is near a downturn.

In this article, published in his own blog, Damodaran makes an updated analysis offering data and interpretation keys that may help to assess the state of the art of world major stock market.

Most major banks call for a third consecutive year of strong returns for the S&P 500, the benchmark stock index tracking 500 of the largest public American companies, offering a welcome bullish signal for investors already enjoying a historic bull market.

Markets set for early 2025 pullback but long-term rally likely, says Yardeni. Financial markets could face heightened volatility in the first half of 2025 under President Trump’s administration, Yardeni Research analysts said, citing rising complacency among investors, alongside a surge in bullish sentiment as potential risks.

All businesses and those who own them face challenges at various points in their life cycles. These encompass things like talent acquisition, resource and cash flow management, growing competition, increasing regulation and fluctuations in not only the economic environment but consumer spending and loyalty.

"A new dawn is coming to the U.S. stock market," says Chaikin, who's traded through nine bear markets. "It's time to throw out the investment blueprint of the last decade and prepare for a massive shift."

Ed Yardeni's comment on forecast by economists at Goldman Sachs that the S&P 500 will produce annualized returns of only 3% (before accounting for inflation) over the next 10 years. They reckon that the range of possible outcomes includes -1% at the low end and +7% nominal returns at the high end.

After more than a year of war, Israel’s venture capital ecosystem has proved resilient, but the conflict with Hamas is set to have a lasting impact on its future.

U.S. M&A deal activity increased in September, going up 4.6% with 986 announcements compared to 943 in August. Aggregate M&A spending increased as well. In September 9.3% more was spent on deals compared to August.

U.S. equity exposure remains strong despite recent market volatility, Goldman Sachs noted in a Wednesday report.

In the past many years there were lots of discussion about the predictive power of the yield curve. Deeply inverted yield curve have been always a precursor of an impending economic recession and it is especially true when it steepens very fast. It is important to take a deeper look on it now, when the inversion of 2/10 years bond yields is the longest ever period in the history of bond market.

The chart with the last data of the MM US Stock Funtamental Index

Update of S&P 500 technical analysis.

Periodic report on earnings trend of S&P500

Robert Prechter: Levitating Optimism in the Stock Market.
Market Forecast is the FSC’s premiere event of the year. Market Forecast 2024 took place on January 9 to 11 and featured six leading experts and trading professionals who have become legends in their fields. They shared their invaluable insights on markets for the coming year.

Moderate growth favors growth stocks, such as US technology. But if GDP growth accelerates, focus on value stocks.

The Corporate Finance and Valuation Professor shares why companies need to accept that they go through life cycles, and explains how their focus should change in each stage of the life cycle.

S&P 500 Q3 2023 Buybacks Up 6.1% and Impact to Earnings Per Share Continues to Decline; Buyback Tax Reduced Operating Earnings by 0.39%.

Volume Profile (VP) or Volume at Price (VAP) or Price by Volume (PBV) chart is a horizontal histogram plotted on a security's chart, showing the volume of shares traded at a specific price level. Often times, Volume Profile histograms are found on the Y-axis and are used by technical traders to predict areas of support and resistance.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index represents the sum of the difference between official economic results and forecasts. With a sum over 0, its economic performance generally beats market expectations. With a sum below 0, its economic conditions are generally worse than expected. Surprise index readings climb up as economy recovers but declines fast as economy declines.

Greenblatt reveals his thoughts on the economy and his strategy for 2023. Joel Greenblatt believes the market is 'emotional in the short term, but eventually gets things right.'. He forecasts a 63% increase in stock prices over the next 2 years, 'if historic patterns, translate into the future.'

under the leadership of Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the stock market for the last 20 years. Seriously?! Yeah, seriously. In this article, there are indications from Buffett's 2022 letter to Berkshire shareholders that shows the annual returns of the Berkshire stock and that of the S&P 500, going back to 1965.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 1.2 percent in March 2023 to 108.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in February. The LEI is down 4.5 percent over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.5 percent contraction over the previous six months (March–September 2022).

The buyback report brings into focus how S&P 500 companies and industry sectors delivered "Buyback ROI," the overall value accrued to remaining shareholders from capital allocated to buybacks; and "Buyback Effectiveness," the incremental value created when companies execute buybacks at prices.

What about the decision by OPEC to reduce oil output and the reaction of markets.

For all 12-month ending in March 2023, the net dividend rate increased $59.7 billion, compared to the net $70.1 billion ending in March 2022. Increases were $74.5 billion versus $86.0 billion, and decreases were $14.8 billion compared to $15.9 billion.

US stocks could end this year 14% higher because banking turmoil will trigger a Fed pause, veteran investor Ed Yardeni says

The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry stock price index has jumped 55.8% from its late 2022 low, as of Tuesday’s close.

The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index.

The past year was a rough one for the stock market, but defensive stocks still made gains as a group.
The good news for long-term investors looking to put money to work in defensive stocks is that there are still plenty of cheap defensive stocks worth considering.

Tom Lauricella, chief markets editor of Smart Investor at Morningstar, is reasoning about the puzzle of many analysts in this period: whether the stock market growth after mid October is the beginning of a new bull phase or just a recovery a mid term quote increase in a sideway period that may represent an accumulation waiting for an effective expansion.

Ed Yardeni affirms that the technicals confirm that S&P 500 has bottomed in October 2022.
In any case, the big question remains: is the index growth of these months the beginning of a new bull market or a short term rebound of a bear market that has still to end ?

S&P 500 Price to Book Value was 4.03 as of 2023-01-24, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historically, S&P 500 Price to Book Value reached a record high of 5.06 and a record low of 1.46, the median value is 2.83. Typical value range is from 2.61 to 3.89.

The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 for the fourth quarter is -3.9%, which would mark the first year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).

Industry analysts continue to trim their estimates for S&P 500 earnings for each of this year's four quarters. They may continue to do so if company managements provide cautious earnings guidance during the current earnings reporting season.

Analysts lowered their earnings estimates more than average for the fourth quarter for companies in the S&P/TSX Composite. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the fourth quarter decreased by 7.1% from September 30 to December 31.

The (blended) net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q4 2022 is 11.4%, which is below the previous quarter’s net profit margin of 11.9% and below the year-ago net profit margin of 12.4%. However, it is equal to the 5-year average net profit margin (11.4%).

The fourth quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is not off to a strong start. To date, the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises reported by S&P 500 companies are below their 5-year and 10-year averages. Overall, the index is reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings for the first time since Q3 2020.

According to Cambridge Associates (CA) indexes, private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) in the developed markets underperformed those in emerging markets in first half 2022. The Cambridge Associates LLC Developed Markets ex US PE/VC Index returned -11.1% in the period, in USD terms, and -3.3% in euros.

FactSet’s U.S. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) data suggested continued weakness in the M&A markets as 2022 progressed. After running down roughly 20% in the first half, deal counts were down 40% year/year by November with some acceleration in the decline as the year ended.

U.S. M&A deal activity decreased in December, going down 13.2% with 1,089 announcements compared to 1,255 in November. Aggregate M&A spending decreased as well. In December, 54.8% less was spent on deals compared to November.

While the majority of S&P 500 companies will report earnings results for Q4 2022 over the next few weeks, 4% of the companies in the index (20 companies) had reported earnings results for the fourth quarter through January 12.

Top 10 economic predictions for 2023 made by S&P Global Market Intelligence

Top economist Nouriel Roubini speaks to DW on what he calls the ‘mega threats’ facing the globe in the coming year and beyond.

5 new themes for portfolios, including bonds, China, and active management.
Better times for investors are coming in 2023. That’s not to say there won’t be continued volatility or another leg down of the bear market in stocks or even an economic recession. But after the annus horribilis that was 2022, money managers and strategists say there are now more compelling opportunities to pick and choose from among different asset classes.

S&P Dow Jones Indices (“S&P DJI”) announced today preliminary S&P 500® stock buybacks, or share repurchases, data for Q3 2022.

In his presentation at the Brookings Institution, in Washington-DC, Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), signaled a smaller increase in the US basic interest rate as a decision for the next FOMC meeting on December 14. Expectations now converge to an increase of only 50 basis points this time, after four consecutive meetings with increases of 75 basis points.

The EBITDA multiple for a specific sector is calculated by dividing the total enterprise value of all sector companies by the total sum of annual EBITDA of the companies.

For 2023, the bottom-up EPS estimate for the S&P 500 (which reflects an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for CY 2023 for all of the companies in the index) is $232.53. However, what is the likelihood that $232.53 will be the final EPS value for the S&P 500 in 2023?

Despite market turbulence, stock buybacks are on track to hit record levels by year-end. This signals a vote of confidence from corporations on their financial health even as a recession looms large.
In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we chart the growth of buybacks over the last two decades and the implications for investors looking ahead.

In this video, you will learn the basics of the smart/dumb money confidence indicators. We go over how they are calculated, how to read the charts, and what is smart vs. dumb money.

The enterprise value (EV) to the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ratio varies by industry. However, the EV/EBITDA for the S&P 500 has typically averaged between 11 and 16 over the last few years. EBITDA measures a firm's overall financial performance, while EV determines the firm's total value.

Come già successo troppe volte in passato, la classe politica appare scoprire i problemi del sistema bancario quando si manifestano crisi e scandali. E questo dimostra che il mondo bancario e finanziario ha conquistato un potere rilevante e incontrollato dal potere politico.

Talking about "insolvency risk" for the world of Italian wine is excessive but, in this sense, some alarm bells are starting to ring and should not be underestimated. “Above all, the gap between healthy and structured companies and companies that are suffering is increasing,” Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo, strategic finance expert, explains to WineNews.

The growth in rates and the fall in the stock markets following the declarations of the head of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, on the imminent reduction of monetary stimuli, which, moreover, already showed some limits, as anticipated and indicated elsewhere, demonstrate that expansionary monetary policies can generate benefits in the short term but they are like a drug that induces the sensation of relief until it is administered, until it produces addiction and until one thinks one can take other doses but, then, it induces depression and states of further and growing discomfort .

Product, market, distribution, but also changes in company structures, use of the web and appeal of wine companies for foreign buyers. Here are the most important trends suggested by Professor Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo, director of the European School of Economics of Milan and Florence who responded to WineNews' complex question, tracing a scenario full of nuances but not for this reason not colored rosy.

The events of the euro and the process of European monetary integration are increasingly leading to the creation of factions and conflicts regarding the purposes and methods with which it is believed that the single currency can and must be a value that justifies the policies promoted by the countries adhering to the ' European Monetary Union, especially those who have the greatest need for public finance recovery.

The comparison between the two main positions for the resolution of the international economic crisis can also be understood on the basis of criteria that concern the social psychology of the two main nations that represent them, USA and Germany.

In recent times there seems to be emerging among European leaders a growing awareness of the need to provide for greater integration of economic and financial governance structures and processes and to attempt to save the existence of the euro and, hopefully, to arrive at a new phase that allows us to consolidate and strengthen the common currency also to encourage the effective political construction of Europe.

Italy's government wants to reform arcane labour laws which underpin the 'job for life' culture. Plus the market may be crowded with electric cars, but does the public want to buy them?

BBC interviews prof. Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo on the new government in Italy led by prof. Mario Monti.

BBC interviews prof. Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo on the increasing problems of Berlusconi's government and his attempt to survive.

BBC interviews professor Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo after the downgrade of Italian debt.

BBC interviews professor Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo on the Italian economic situation.

Prof. Stefano Cordero di Montezemolo talks to the BBC about the Euro Crisis